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NewsNew demographic study predicts stable enrollmentThe 2011 demographic study, presented to the School Board January 12, forecasts stable enrollment over the next 10 years for the Eastern Carver County Schools. Demographer Hazel Reinhardt told the Board that two trends principally account for the projection: lower birthrates and aging in place. Current K-12 enrollment is 9,000. Reinhardt noted that the lower birthrate is a state-wide trend. Births in the Eastern Carver County School district area dropped to 607 in the 2010-11 school year from a high of 724 in 2005-06. As current elementary students move through the system, enrollment in Eastern Carver County's middle schools and high schools will dip. The report to the School Board also addressed the impact of fewer single family homes on the market in this area. Reinhardt noted that in Chanhassen and Chaska especially, fewer new single family homes are being built. At the same time, empty nesters, who have raised their families and no longer have children at home, are not moving. They are electing to remain in the family home, further reducing the single family housing stock for families with children. Single family housing produces more school-age children than any other type of housing stock, according the Reinhardt. The district continues to lose approximately 24 percent of district resident students to private, parochial and home schools as well as through open enrollment. In a June, 2011 community survey, district residents appeared to support more aggressive marketing of Eastern Carver County programs beyond its boundaries. The study is part of a larger review of the district's programming and facilities. The School Board is gathering data to be used to identify the decisions the Board must make soon to best position the district in the next 10 years. "The demographic study tells us that the current imbalance of elementary enrollment between the eastern and western portion of the district will only increase," said Superintendent Dr. Jim Bauck. "Chanhassen Elementary school's enrollment will decrease by 16% in the next five years. At the same time, Victoria Elementary, Clover Ridge and East Union will remain crowded. Given the Board's commitment to balanced class sizes in the district, this may lead to a discussion in the months ahead of changes to attendance area boundaries. There would be no change for the 2012-13 school year, however." Eastern Carver County School District Enrollment Projections Eastern Carver County School District Housing/Enrollment Study Eastern Carver County School District Enrollment Presentation | ||||||||||||||
